Morning All,
Hope you are well. I was burning the midnight oil last night and i have decided on how best i may go forward with the trading strategy. Although the fundamentals in principal for a succesful strategy are unchanged the execution has been changed somewhat for a more rounded experience.
The key to profitable trading in the main is cutting bad trades quick and running the good ones out as far as you can. There is nothing wrong with this mantra but you will find that you experience periods where you will not be going anywhere. If we look at the results that we have achieved in the last week we can see that although 21% growth has been achieved we have quite a " wild looking" trend line.
I will be changing the procedure somewhat from today and we will se how we fair i will be starting a new spreadsheet for results but will be adding the progress on to the previous sheet so that we can see how the famous graph progresses.
Although i will have a fair idea of which horses i will be trading i am shortening the stop loss and therefore i want to try and catch " break out" type moves which means i want to be in to the market at quite an exact time.
With this in mind i thought i may show you a sneak peak of my modus operandi.
I use Microsoft excel integration in to bet angel which means i can tell bet angel when to trade the market by using formulas and statements.
so this is the basic interface
I have added the VBA buttons which can quickly clear status cells and also block all actions in a split second .
So basically you get the bet angel screen in to excel the real power comes from the programming angle.
You can create what is known as atruth table with as many factors as possible on a seperate sheet of the workbook with as many factors as you want for example.
if the favourite is less than 2.00 back
if the weight of money is 15% back
Now that is avery simplified equation but it would be managed by making reference to the status of each of those 2 aforementioned cells so consider the translation. if "favourite" is cell f7 and weight of money is t7 then we can build our truth table thusly
=if(f7<2,1,)>
=if(t7<15%,1,)
we can then have the sun of those 2 equations in a final calculation cell for example
=if(f7+t7=2,1,)
This says that if the 2 criteria are met then we have a final cell populated with a "1"
this leads us to the final command which is fired which as an example from my sheet is
=IF(AF7=1,"BACK OFFSET:"&Criteria!$B$14&" FILL_KILL:TRUE KILL_DELAY:"&Criteria!$B$16&" STOP:"&Criteria!$B$18&"TRAILING_STOP:TRUE WITH_GREENING:TRUE","")
The continual reference to "criteria" is a sheet i have with changeable factors for stop loss and offset and whether i want other conditions such as a trail stop or greening.
My conditions are far more sophisticated than asimple 2 step operation and i have individually 25 conditions which must be met.
Going forward i will be looking for a 5 tick profit and taking a 3 tick stop, using the automation technique means i will be getting in to the market when there is a definitive move and that coupled with the fact i am using the long term trend should help the situation.
Obviously the worst case scenario berring accidents is a 3 tick loss and the best is a 5 tick profit take but with the trailing stop in place we may experience many results in between. I am hoping we can get a 75% strike rate and a steady growth. Previous experience with this type of thing leads to me believe that we will experience profitability but i must say that i have not tried this exact configuration.
I must gear this to scalability and tehrefore i will be trading on horses that suit what we are looking for and therefore favourites under 2.92 will be what i am looking at where there is plenty of liquidity and the market is at its smoothest.
No comments:
Post a Comment